AGP Executive Report

SCO Leadership & Regional Agenda: Pakistan will take over the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s Council of Heads of State chairmanship in September, with the next summit also planned in Pakistan, as the bloc marks its 25th anniversary and pushes economic cooperation and connectivity. Water & Infrastructure: Tajikistan and the Asian Development Bank discussed modernizing the Bahri Tojik (Tajik Sea) reservoir, including dam upgrades, pumping station modernization, irrigation and drainage improvements, and digital monitoring to better manage floods and climate-driven water risks. Afghanistan Connectivity Talks: EU and Central Asian envoys met in Almaty to coordinate approaches on Afghanistan, with a strong focus on transport and transit routes that could boost trade between Central and South Asia and strengthen long-term socio-economic ties. Tourism Push: Dushanbe created a National Tourism Association to unite public and private players, improve service quality, protect entrepreneurs’ interests, and market Tajikistan abroad, as visitor numbers rose to 1.7 million in 2025. Digital Economy Angle: A Dushanbe IT hub and broader digital payments growth are highlighted as early steps toward a more tech-driven economy, with electronic payments and legal reforms supporting momentum. Energy Cooperation Context: Regional discussions also continue around power and grid projects tied to cross-border electricity links, underscoring the business stakes of infrastructure financing.

Tajikistan Growth Watch: The EBRD says Tajikistan is among Central Asia’s fastest-growing economies, with Q1 2026 fixed capital investment up 34.2% and industrial output rising 29.6%, supported by Rogun-related spending, stronger manufacturing, and higher electricity generation. Power & Infrastructure: Pakistan’s PSDP 2026-27 earmarks Rs 88,000 million for power projects tied to regional links, including CASA-1000 transmission and Tajikistan–Pakistan interconnection works. Water Management: Tajikistan and the ADB discussed modernizing the Bahri Tojik reservoir, including dam protection, pumping upgrades, land reclamation improvements, and a SCADA-based digital management system. Digital Economy Push: A Dushanbe IT Center is framed as a potential turning point for Tajikistan’s digital shift, alongside rising electronic payments and a 2022 e-commerce law. Regional Trade Link: Indonesia is looking to use Tajikistan as an entry point into CIS markets for Indonesian manufactured goods, citing complementary strengths in minerals, aluminum, and technology. Legal Cooperation: Pakistan’s IDI and China’s Karamay Arbitration Commission signed an MoU to resolve civil and commercial disputes through legally binding arbitration, with Tajikistan among the region’s neighboring stakeholders. SCO Momentum: India’s MoS Kirti Vardhan Singh reaffirmed India’s SCO commitment in Dushanbe and announced the first SCO Civilisation Dialogue Forum in Kolkata (July 17–19, 2026).

Tajikistan Growth Watch: The EBRD says Tajikistan is among Central Asia’s fastest-growing economies, with Q1 2026 GDP up 8% y/y, fixed investment up 34.2%, and manufacturing up 29.6%, driven by trade, transport, electricity generation and public spending tied to major projects like Rogun. Power & Infrastructure: Pakistan’s CASA-1000 and Tajikistan-linked grid upgrades are part of wider regional power spending plans, while Tajikistan also discussed ADB support to modernize the Bahri Tojik reservoir, including protective dams, pumping stations and a SCADA water-management system. Digital Economy Push: A Dushanbe IT hub and the “Information Technology Center” are framed as a step toward a more knowledge-based economy, alongside rising electronic payments and a legal boost from Tajikistan’s e-commerce law. Regional Connectivity & Trade: Indonesia is looking to use Tajikistan as an entry point for Indonesian manufactured goods into the CIS, citing complementary strengths in Tajik minerals/aluminum and Indonesia’s manufacturing. SCO Business Angle: India reaffirmed its SCO commitment in Dushanbe and announced a July 2026 SCO Civilisation Dialogue in Kolkata, signaling continued regional engagement that can support trade and investment ties. Legal/Dispute Resolution: The IDI and China’s Karamay Arbitration Commission signed an MoU to handle civil and commercial disputes through binding arbitration, relevant for cross-border trade and investment.

Tajikistan Growth Watch: The EBRD says Tajikistan’s economy grew about 8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with fixed capital investment up 34.2% and manufacturing rising 29.6%, supported by trade, transport, communications, and stronger electricity generation. Power Sector Funding: Pakistan’s CASA-1000 and other regional grid links are among projects in Pakistan’s PSDP 2026-27 power allocations, with Rs 88,000 million earmarked for upgrades and new schemes. Digital Economy Push: A Dushanbe IT center is framed as a step toward a more tech-driven Tajik economy, alongside rising electronic payments and a 2022 e-commerce law, though internet access remains limited. Water & Infrastructure Modernization: Tajikistan and the ADB discussed modernizing the Bahri Tojik reservoir, including protective dams, pumping stations, land reclamation, and SCADA-based digital management. SCO Business-Adjacent Diplomacy: India’s MoS Kirti Vardhan Singh reaffirmed ties with Tajikistan and Central Asia at an SCO conference in Dushanbe and announced an SCO Civilisation Dialogue Forum in Kolkata (July 17–19, 2026), signaling continued regional engagement.

Power & Infrastructure: Pakistan’s pressure on Afghanistan and cross-border clashes are worsening Afghanistan’s economic crisis, while Russia deepens influence after Taliban-Russia military coordination, raising regional security and trade risks. Water & Food Security Debate: A new analysis argues Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal could boost irrigation, jobs and exports—if run as large-scale commercial agriculture; shrinking it into ethnic land plots would waste resources and fuel division. Digital Economy: A Dushanbe IT Center is framed as a potential turning point for Tajikistan’s shift toward a knowledge economy, alongside rising e-payments and a 2022 e-commerce law. Energy Budgeting: The government earmarked Rs 88,000 million for power sector schemes under PSDP 2026-27, including STATCOM installations, major transmission links (CASA-1000) and new grid and storage projects. Growth Watch: EBRD says Tajikistan is among Central Asia’s fastest-growing economies, citing 8% Q1 2026 growth, strong fixed investment and manufacturing, supported by public spending and hydropower momentum. Regional Diplomacy & Business: India’s MoS Kirti Vardhan Singh reaffirmed ties with Tajikistan and announced India will host the first SCO Civilisation Dialogue Forum in Kolkata in July. ADB Water Project: Tajikistan and the ADB discussed modernizing the Bahri Tojik reservoir, including protective dams, pumping upgrades and SCADA-based water management. SCO Coordination Theme: Commentary on SCO’s 25 years highlights coordination as its practical strength amid diverse member interests.

Power Investment: Tajikistan’s growth story gets a boost from a wider regional push for electricity upgrades, with government plans allocating Rs 88,000 million for power-sector schemes under the 2026-27 PSDP, including grid transmission, reactive power compensation and new power evacuation projects. Economic Momentum: The EBRD says Tajikistan is among Central Asia’s fastest-growing economies, citing 8% year-on-year GDP growth in Q1 2026, fixed capital investment up 34.2%, and industrial production rising 29.6%, supported by major projects like Rogun and higher electricity generation. Water & Infrastructure Modernization: Tajikistan and the Asian Development Bank discussed modernizing the Bahri Tojik reservoir, including dam protection, pumping upgrades, improved land reclamation, and a modern SCADA digital management system. Regional Health Cooperation: Central Asia’s “One Health” consultations wrapped up, aiming to finalize a strategic document package for pandemic prevention, sustainable food systems and ecosystem health ahead of the June 25 regional coordinating council meeting. SCO & Diplomacy: India’s MoS Kirti Vardhan Singh reaffirmed support for Central Asia and SCO, announcing India will host the first SCO Civilisation Dialogue Forum in Kolkata on July 17-19, while also stressing principles against safe havens and cross-border terrorism. Finance & Sanctions Compliance: Tajikistan’s government and banking sector met the UK sanctions attaché in Dushanbe to discuss banking regulation, risk management and aligning the financial system with international standards.

Tajikistan Growth Watch: The EBRD says Tajikistan is among Central Asia’s fastest-growing economies, with Q1 2026 fixed investment up 34.2% y/y and industrial output up 29.6%, supported by Rogun hydropower and state-led industrial expansion. US–Central Asia Minerals Push: Washington held its first in-person C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue in Astana, with U.S. envoy Sergio Gor urging “win-win” deals to build secure supply chains and move from raw exports to processing and workforce training. India–Tajikistan & SCO Outreach: India’s Kirti Vardhan Singh met Tajik FM Sirojiddin Muhriddin in Dushanbe and invited Tajikistan to India’s July 17–19 SCO Civilizational Dialogue in Kolkata. Banking & Sanctions Compliance: Tajik officials met the UK sanctions attaché in Dushanbe to discuss banking regulation, risk management, and alignment with international standards. Regional Investment Calendar: Uzbekistan’s 5th Tashkent International Investment Forum runs June 16–18, while the World Bank lifted Uzbekistan’s 2026 growth forecast to 6.4% as Central Asia outperforms a slowing global economy. Cross-Border Land Restoration: A new RESILAND CA+ analytical report backs harmonized cross-border policies for degraded land restoration, biodiversity, and wildfire response across Central Asia.

Tajikistan’s Digital Push: Construction has started on the $100m IT Hub Dushanbe, a 53,000+ sq m complex with an IT school, IT park, business center and a regional AI center—aimed at boosting the digital economy and innovation. Banking & Sanctions Compliance: In Dushanbe, Tajik officials met UK sanctions attaché Douglas Clark to discuss banking regulation, risk management, and steps to align the financial sector with international standards. Investment Momentum: The EBRD says Tajikistan is among Central Asia’s fastest-growing economies, citing a 34.2% jump in fixed asset investment in Q1 2026 and a 29.6% rise in industrial output. Energy & Grid Readiness: A new EDB warning flags that Central Asia’s renewable boom could raise electricity costs unless grid upgrades, storage and market reforms keep pace. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The US held a C5+1 dialogue in Astana focused on geological data, exploration incentives, workforce development and moving beyond raw exports—while Tajikistan also featured in the broader push. Regional Power Skills: Dispatchers from Central Asia completed training in Tashkent on power system dispatch management, targeting better renewable integration and system flexibility. SCO-Afghanistan Talks: Russia renewed calls to restart the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group, pointing to Dushanbe consultations last year.

Aviation & Regulation: Kyrgyzstan’s Moalem Aviation has lost its Air Operator’s Certificate, with authorities seizing four aircraft and cancelling flights after the carrier’s licensing collapse. Climate & Energy Planning: A new Eurasian Development Bank warning says Central Asia’s fast renewable build-out could backfire unless grid upgrades, storage and market reforms keep pace. Banking & Sanctions Compliance: Tajikistan met the UK’s sanctions attaché in Dushanbe to tighten banking regulation, risk management and compliance with international standards. Digital Economy Push: Tajikistan has started construction of the $100m IT Hub Dushanbe, including an IT school, IT park, business center and a regional AI center. Tech & Finance Credibility: Moody’s Commercial Group met Tajikistan’s National Bank officials to discuss sovereign credit rating methodology and ways to improve transparency and attract investment. Trade Corridors: Pakistan is rerouting Central Asia trade away from Afghanistan by operationalizing new land routes via Iran and China, after security-driven closures of key Afghan border crossings. Critical Minerals Race: The US and Central Asian states held C5+1 critical minerals talks in Astana, focusing on exploration data, investment incentives, workforce and supply-chain integration. Water Security: The GEF launched the Central Asia Water-Land Nexus Programme to coordinate land and water management across five countries as rivers and soils come under mounting stress. Transport Connectivity: Mongolia discussed expanding transport and logistics links with Tajikistan, including new corridor ideas across rail, road and civil aviation.

IT & AI Investment: Tajikistan has started construction of the $100m IT Hub Dushanbe, a 53,000+ sq m complex with an IT school, IT Park, business center and a regional AI center, aiming to boost the digital economy and attract tech firms and investors. Sovereign Credit & Finance: Tajikistan’s National Bank met Moody’s leadership to discuss the country’s sovereign credit rating and how Moody’s methodology and services can support transparency, risk management and investment confidence. Hydropower Reality Check: Tajikistan is using only about 5% of its hydropower potential, despite generating roughly 98% of electricity from renewables, highlighting the investment gap for scaling new capacity. Regional Connectivity for Business: Megafon Tajikistan expanded fixed broadband for business customers nationwide, with rapid last-mile deployment and speeds up to 500 Mbps. Trade Routes & Regional Impact: Pakistan’s exports to Central Asia fell 8.6% in the first 10 months of 2025-26 after the Afghanistan land route closure, while imports from the region plunged sharply; transit via Iran is still limited. SCO Diplomacy: Russia urged resumption of the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group, and India’s MoS Kirti Vardhan Singh will visit Tajikistan June 12-13 for an SCO Central Asia conference and bilateral meetings. Climate Finance in Dushanbe: Tajikistan will host the 45th Green Climate Fund Governing Board meeting (June 25–July 2), expected to draw climate finance partners and green investment interest.

Hydropower & Renewables: Tajikistan is using only a small slice of its hydropower potential, with hydropower still powering about 98% of electricity generation, while major solar and wind resources remain largely undeveloped. Digital Economy Push: Construction has started on a $100m IT Hub Dushanbe complex, including an IT school, IT park, business center and a regional AI center—aimed at scaling digital infrastructure and attracting tech firms. Business Connectivity: Megafon Tajikistan says it now offers fixed broadband for business customers across almost the whole country, with rapid last-mile deployment and speeds up to 500 Mbps. Energy & Investment Planning: The State Committee on Investment and State Property Management highlights the gap between renewable potential and investment needed to fully develop it. Regional Water Security: Central Asia launched the GEF-backed CAWLN Water–Land Nexus program to tackle shrinking rivers and land degradation across five countries, including Tajikistan. Climate Finance: Tajikistan will host the 45th Green Climate Fund board meeting in Dushanbe (June 25–July 2), positioning the country to draw more green investment. Trade & Telecom Upgrades: The EBRD is advancing plans to modernize Tajikistan’s telecom network (about $43m) and discuss a border logistics hub with Uzbekistan. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. opened a new C5+1 critical minerals dialogue round in Astana, signaling renewed focus on Central Asia’s supply chains. Geopolitics Watch: Russia urged quick resolution of Armenia’s EU path versus its post-Soviet military and economic commitments, underscoring shifting regional alignments.

IT & Innovation: Tajikistan has started building a $100 million IT Hub Dushanbe complex (over 53,000 sq m) with an IT school, regional AI center, IT park and business center, aiming to host 5,000+ professionals and hundreds of tech firms and investors. Digital Governance: A Tajik delegation studied Uzbekistan’s GovTech model in Tashkent, focusing on digital identity, e-document management and biometric/cybersecurity solutions, with talks on expanding bilateral cooperation in AI and digital public services. Telecoms & Connectivity: The EBRD is set to back Tajikistan’s telecom modernization with about $43 million, while plans also advance for a border logistics hub near Uzbekistan. Trade & Agriculture: Russia expects to raise imports of Tajik agricultural goods by more than 10% in 2026, with fresh fruit, dried fruit, vegetables and grapes among the target exports. Water & Land Security: Central Asia’s CAWLN water-land nexus program moved into implementation under the GEF, bringing five countries together to tackle shrinking rivers and land degradation affecting about 60 million people. Climate Finance: Tajikistan will host the 45th Green Climate Fund board meeting in Dushanbe (June 25–July 2), positioning the country to attract green investment. Regional Transport: Mongolia discussed expanding transport and logistics links with Tajikistan, including rail, civil aviation and new Eurasian transport flows.

Water & Land Security: The GEF’s Central Asia Water-Land Nexus (CAWLN) program has moved into implementation, bringing Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan together under FAO to tackle water stress and land degradation across the Amudarya and Syrdarya basins that support about 60 million people. Digital Governance: A Tajik delegation studied Uzbekistan’s GovTech rollout in Tashkent, focusing on digital identity, e-document exchange and biometric/cybersecurity tools, with both sides exploring practical cooperation. Trade & Finance: Rostelecom’s T2 is adding international money transfers via its app, including Tajikistan among CIS destinations. Climate Finance: Tajikistan will host the 45th Green Climate Fund board meeting in Dushanbe (June 25–July 2), positioning the country to attract green investment. Telecom & Logistics: The EBRD is backing Tajikistan’s telecom modernization with about $43m and is also advancing plans for a border logistics hub with Uzbekistan. Agribusiness: Tajikistan says it can lift agricultural exports to Russia by 10%+ in 2026, targeting fresh and processed fruit and vegetables. Industry Links: Tajikistan and Iran discussed deeper trade and industrial cooperation, including a joint industrial park and textile clusters using Tajik cotton. Business-Adjacent Security: Tajikistan urged SCO members to expand joint counterterror and digital-threat exercises, pushing for better information sharing and secure communications. Energy/Resources: Tajikistan renamed its Vanjyakh Glacier as the “Tajikistan Glacier,” spotlighting glacier monitoring and freshwater stakes for the economy.

Telecom & Border Logistics: Tajikistan is set to receive about $43m to modernize telecommunications, while the EBRD is also backing plans for a new border logistics hub with Uzbekistan, aiming to boost digital and transport connectivity and support Tajikistan’s digital transformation. Agriculture Exports: Russia expects to raise agricultural imports from Tajikistan by more than 10% in 2026, with talks focused on expanding the list of approved products and contracts for fresh and processed produce. Industrial Ties with Iran: Tajikistan and Iran agreed to deepen economic cooperation, including textile clusters using Tajik cotton, metallurgy and mineral processing, agricultural machinery, pharmaceuticals, and a planned joint industrial park, alongside a push to grow trade toward $1bn. SCO Security Cooperation: Tajikistan urged expanded SCO joint drills as ministers met in Bishkek to coordinate counterterrorism, extremism, drug trafficking, and information sharing, with Tajik officials calling for better secure communications and joint training. Tajikistan–India Manufacturing: Tajikistan and India discussed joint assembly of cars and electric vehicles, plus localization of hydropower and electrical equipment and cooperation in metallurgy and critical minerals.

Telecom Upgrade & Border Logistics: Tajikistan is set to receive about $43m to modernize and expand its telecom network with EBRD support, while the bank also advances plans for a new logistics hub at the Dusti border with Uzbekistan. Agriculture Exports: Russia expects to raise agricultural imports from Tajikistan by more than 10% in 2026, with talks focused on expanding approved fruit, dried fruit, vegetables and grape supplies. Industrial Ties with Iran: Tajikistan and Iran agreed to deepen cooperation across textiles, metallurgy, machinery, pharma and chemicals, including plans for a joint industrial park and a push to boost bilateral trade toward $1bn. SCO Security Cooperation: Tajikistan urged expanded SCO joint drills as interior ministers met in Bishkek to coordinate counterterrorism, anti-drug efforts and information sharing, with attention to threats linked to Afghanistan. Regional Trade & Connectivity: A WCO-JICA program wrapped up risk-management training and a time-release study for Central Asia and the Caucasus, aiming to speed border procedures along the Middle Corridor/Trans-Caspian route. Food Supply Push: Tajikistan is expanding vegetable output and greenhouse farming, reporting rising harvests and over 1,000 greenhouses supporting year-round supply.

Critical Minerals & Supply Chains: The Kadamjay antimony plant in Kyrgyzstan is still operating and supplying raw material to Russia, but whether Chinese investors will move into mining remains unclear as China already dominates global antimony processing. Tajik Agriculture & Food Security: Tajikistan is expanding vegetable output, with tomatoes and cucumbers leading, and more than 1,000 greenhouses helping stabilize supply year-round. SCO Security Cooperation: Tajikistan urged expanded SCO joint drills and tighter information sharing to counter terrorism, extremism, drugs and digital threats, as ministers met in Bishkek. Tajik-India Industrial Push: Dushanbe and New Delhi discussed joint assembly of cars and EVs, plus localization of hydropower and electrical equipment manufacturing. China-Tajik Banking Links: Tajikistan’s central bank met China’s Agricultural Bank to deepen trade payments, digital finance tools, and explore Chinese bank branches in Tajikistan. Regional Energy Connectivity: Pakistan and Tajikistan moved toward finalizing CASA-1000 terms, aiming to turn Tajik hydropower surplus into export revenue and ease Pakistan’s power shortages. Cross-border Security Risks: SCO talks also highlighted Afghanistan’s role in regional security concerns, including terrorist camps and narcotics production.