AGP Executive Report

SCO Summit in Bishkek: Leaders of 17 countries plus UN chief António Guterres will attend the Sept. 1 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan, with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon among the key participants; the meeting is expected to produce a Bishkek Declaration and multiple cooperation documents, keeping security and economic integration high on the agenda. Digital Expansion: The Digital Cooperation Organization (DCO) approved eight new member states (Albania, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Zambia) and welcomed Tajikistan as an associate member, opening doors for digital innovation, skills, inclusion, and public-private partnerships. Tajik-Omani Talks: Oman and Tajikistan held the third round of political consultations in Dushanbe, focusing on expanding investment and trade ties across economic, scientific, and cultural areas. Transport & Trade Finance: The ADB approved a $400m regional facility to modernize border crossing points across the CAREC corridor network, aiming to cut logistics costs and improve movement of people and goods. Tourism Push: Tajikistan approved a $29.5m tourism development action plan through 2030 (2027-2030 phase), covering infrastructure, safety, workforce capacity, and the “E‑Mehmon” system.

SCO Summit Diplomacy: Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Bishkek on Aug 31–Sept 1 for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, with talks expected to generate a Bishkek Declaration and a packed sideline schedule including meetings with Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi. China’s SCO Push: A Tajik economist says China is helping shift the SCO from a security forum toward broader cooperation in economy, technology, transport and finance, including plans for an SCO development bank. Regional Connectivity Boost: The Asian Development Bank approved a $400m CAREC facility to modernize border crossing points and cut logistics bottlenecks. Tajikistan Tourism Plan: Tajikistan adopted a $29.5m tourism development action plan to 2030, covering infrastructure, safety, workforce and promotion via the “E‑Mehmon” system. Construction & Industry: Tajikistan broke ground on a 1.2Mta cement plant in Khatlon to ease shortages and stabilize prices, while Webuild advances Rogun dam works. Aviation Fuel Efficiency: IATA data highlights rising pressure on airlines’ fuel bills, pushing Central Asian carriers toward data-driven savings.

SCO Summit Momentum: China is pushing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to broaden beyond security into economy, technology, transport and finance, with a 2026-2035 development strategy and plans for an SCO development bank highlighted by a Tajik economist ahead of the Sept. 1 Bishkek leaders’ summit. Regional Diplomacy Watch: Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Kyrgyzstan for the SCO’s 25th anniversary, with Iran also expected to attend as US pressure on Tehran grows—an agenda likely to mix stability, trade links and digital cooperation. Tajikistan Tourism Push: Dushanbe has approved a $29.5m tourism development action plan to 2030, funded via state, partners and private money, including safety, workforce upgrades and the “E‑Mehmon” booking system. Cement Capacity Expansion: Tajikistan has broken ground on a new 1.2Mta cement plant in Khatlon, aiming to ease shortages and price pressure by 2029. Trade & Connectivity Finance: The ADB approved a $400m CAREC facility to modernize border crossings and cut logistics bottlenecks across Central Asia. Airlines Fuel-Saving Drive: IATA says fuel is about a third of airline costs and profitability is under pressure, boosting demand for data-driven fuel efficiency in Central Asia. Fuel Route Disruption: Central Asia is adjusting as Russian refinery disruptions reshape supply—Kyrgyzstan is looking to China, while Tajikistan seeks larger volumes from Iran.

ADB Trade Facilitation: The Asian Development Bank approved a $400m regional financing facility to modernize CAREC border crossing points, cut logistics costs, and speed movement of people and goods. Tajik Tourism Push: Dushanbe adopted a 2027-2030 tourism action plan to 2030, with 273.4m somoni ($29.5m) funding across infrastructure, safety, workforce and the “E‑Mehmon” system. Cement Capacity Expansion: Tajikistan broke ground on a new 1.2Mta cement plant in Khatlon (completion targeted for 2029) to tackle shortages and stabilize prices, adding to three other plants under construction. US Antimony Supply Race: US-focused antimony projects are ramping up: Felix Gold’s mine-to-metal plan in Alaska and a planned US refinery, plus Nova Minerals shipping 454t of processing equipment to Alaska for first production in 2027—aimed at reducing heavy import reliance. Regional Connectivity & Trade: Uzbekistan’s trade deficit widened to $9.67bn in Jan–July as exports fell and imports rose, while connectivity upgrades across Central Asia (highway and rail links) are boosting cross-border freight flows. SCO Summit Watch: As the SCO turns 25, leaders head to Bishkek next week, with India’s Modi attending and China’s Xi expected—setting the tone for security and trade talks across Eurasia. Fuel Route Disruptions: Russia’s refinery disruptions are pushing Central Asia to seek alternatives, with Kyrgyzstan turning more to China and Tajikistan requesting crude and fuel from Iran.

Cement Push: Tajikistan has broken ground on a new 1.2Mta cement plant in Khatlon’s Kushoniyon district, with completion targeted for 2029; the project (by Sementi Khatlon) will use nearby limestone, create about 700 permanent jobs, and is part of a wider drive to cut shortages and stabilize prices. Rogun Progress: Webuild says it has raised the Rogun hydropower dam structure to 1,155m, enabling a further reservoir rise and boosting output from already-running units; Lot 2 is valued around $2.3bn and aims to double Tajikistan’s generation capacity. Fuel Diversification: Russia’s refinery disruptions are reshaping Central Asia’s fuel routes; Tajikistan has requested large volumes from Iran as supply reliability from Russia weakens. SCO Spotlight: The SCO’s 25th anniversary summit is set for Bishkek on Aug 31–Sep 1, with India’s PM Modi attending after a visit to Uzbekistan; China’s Xi is also expected to participate. Border Trade Finance: The ADB plans up to $400m for modernization of border crossing points across CAREC countries, including Tajikistan, to speed freight and cut costs. Digital Economy Plan: Tajikistan is moving toward a more integrated national digital system for public services, with instructions to electronically coordinate services and link state information systems. Regional Security Watch: Clashes in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan are raising cross-border risks for Tajikistan and Uzbekistan’s transit interests.

Rogun Hydropower Progress: Webuild says it has raised the Rogun dam in Tajikistan to 1,155m, enabling a further 40m rise in reservoir level and boosting output from already-running turbines; Lot 2 is valued at about $2.3bn and aims to double Tajikistan’s electricity generation capacity. Regional Trade & Connectivity: The ADB plans a up-to-$400m financing mechanism to modernize border crossing points across CAREC countries, including Tajikistan, with upgrades to customs, digitalization and freight procedures to cut delays and costs. Energy Security Watch: Reports say Russia’s fuel deliveries to Tajikistan have become less reliable, pushing shoppers toward Tehran as supply gaps widen. SCO Summit Setup: China’s Xi Jinping will attend the SCO summit in Bishkek on Aug 30–Sep 1, with Tajikistan among the participating states—another signal for regional economic and security coordination. Digital Economy Push: Tajikistan is moving toward a unified national digital system for public services, with instructions to electronically coordinate services and integrate state information systems. Cross-Border Risk: Fighting in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan is raising cross-border security concerns for Tajikistan and could affect Uzbekistan’s transit interests.

SCO Summit Momentum: China’s Xi Jinping will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek (Aug 30–Sep 1), with Kyrgyzstan taking over the SCO presidency after the meeting—expected to keep security, connectivity and economic cooperation high on the agenda. Trade & Connectivity Pressure: The Iran-U.S. standoff is again clouding Eurasian trade routes, with reports of strikes affecting key rail links that connect Iran to Turkmenistan and onward corridors relevant to Tajikistan’s transit interests. Border Costs & Logistics: The ADB is preparing a up-to-$400m financing mechanism to modernize border crossing points across CAREC countries, including Tajikistan, aiming to cut freight delays via upgraded infrastructure and faster procedures. Energy Risk for Tajikistan: Russia’s fuel supply to Tajikistan is becoming less reliable amid refinery attacks and reported petrol shortages in Russia, pushing Tajik buyers toward alternative sourcing. Rogun Progress: Webuild says Rogun Dam construction has reached 1,155m elevation, supporting higher reservoir levels and additional generation capacity as the project advances. Digital State Push: Tajikistan is moving toward an integrated national digital system for public services, with a new council directing electronic coordination and system integration. Regional Security Watch: Fighting in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan is raising cross-border risks for Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, tied to disputes over disarmament and gold mines.

Rogun Hydropower Progress: Webuild says it has raised Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam to 1,155m, lifting reservoir levels and boosting generation from already operating turbines; the 3,600MW project is being built in stages and is expected to double Tajikistan’s electricity capacity. ICT Growth: Tajikistan’s ICT services market grew to TJS 3.07bn in Jan–Jun 2026, up about 24.6% year-on-year, with transport/storage/ICT contributing a larger share of the economy. Trade & Cross-Border Flows: Central Asia’s mutual trade rose in the first half of 2026, with Tajikistan’s exports up 15.8% to $171m; separately, Russian phytosanitary checks at the Chelyabinsk checkpoint cleared about 1.1k tons of high-risk plant products imported from Kazakhstan, including onions and melons, plus dried fruits from Tajikistan. Regional Energy Politics: Kazakhstan’s blackout blame game continues after officials linked the August 14 outage sequence to Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul HPP, while Kazakhstan’s PM demanded fixes for southern power reliability. Environment & Water Security: A UN desertification forum in Mongolia highlighted land degradation and drought risks, with Tajik officials stressing glacier protection as key for regional water supply. Bilateral Diplomacy: Turkmenistan and Tajikistan held political consultations, citing growing trade and cooperation plans in energy, transport, communications, agriculture, and investment.

Central Asia Power Dispute: Kazakhstan’s energy officials say the Aug. 14 blackout started when two Toktogul HPP units in Kyrgyzstan shut down, triggering grid separation and load cuts in southern Kazakhstan; a government commission is set to finalize the cause as Bishkek rejects responsibility. Tajikistan Hydropower Progress: Webuild has raised the Rogun Dam to 1,155m, boosting reservoir level and generation potential at the 3,600MW project, with major works on schedule. Regional Trade Pulse: Central Asian intra-trade grew in the first half of 2026, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan leading the export gains and Tajikistan up 15.8% year-on-year. Tajikistan ICT Growth: The ICT services market in Tajikistan reached TJS 3.07bn in Jan–Jun 2026, up about 24.6% from the same period last year. Energy Security Watch: Kazakhstan’s PM ordered steps to stabilize southern power supply after the outage, including new generation and 500kV grid upgrades. Tajikistan–Turkmenistan Diplomacy: Turkmen and Tajik foreign ministers held consultations, highlighting trade, energy, transport, communications, and business cooperation. SCO Focus: Ahead of the Bishkek summit, SCO agenda priorities include security, cybercrime, connectivity and economic cooperation, with India’s role in the bloc in renewed focus.

Tajikistan Trade & ICT: Tajikistan’s foreign trade turnover jumped to $7.94bn in Jan–July 2026 (+42.3% y/y), with exports up 57.2% to $1.78bn and imports up 38.6% to $6.16bn, leaving a $4.38bn deficit; meanwhile, the ICT services market reached TJS 3.07bn in H1 (+24.6% y/y), showing faster growth in transport, storage, information and communications. Regional Connectivity & Diplomacy: Tajikistan and Turkmenistan held political consultations in which both sides flagged expanding trade, energy, transport and communications, plus renewed intergovernmental commission work; Tajikistan’s transport minister also met China’s ambassador to discuss transport infrastructure cooperation aimed at easing trade and humanitarian exchanges. SCO Momentum: Ahead of the Aug 31–Sep 1 SCO summit in Bishkek, coverage highlights India’s growing role and a broader agenda spanning security, cybercrime, connectivity and economic cooperation—key themes for Tajikistan’s regional business outlook. Energy & Finance Signals: Kazakhstan’s electricity deficit plans and the wider Central Asia power picture remain in focus, while fintech firm Ovanti outlined plans for programmable financial rails across Asia that could eventually support cross-border trade finance relevant to the region. Food Imports Watch: Russian phytosanitary authorities supervised imports of 1.1k tons of high-risk plant products through the Chelyabinsk checkpoint, including onions from Kazakhstan and dried fruits from Tajikistan, with no quarantine violations reported.

ICT & Services Growth: Tajikistan’s ICT services market rose to TJS 3.07bn in Jan–Jun 2026, up about 24.6% year-on-year, with transport/storage/ICT contributing TJS 7.28bn to the economy’s main sectors. Trade & Border Control: Rosselkhoznadzor-supervised checks at the Chelyabinsk Bugristoe checkpoint cleared about 1.1k tons of high phytosanitary-risk produce imported from Kazakhstan, including onions plus watermelons/melons, with no quarantine violations reported. Foreign Trade Performance: Tajikistan’s foreign trade turnover hit $7.94bn in the first seven months of 2026 (+42.3%), with exports up 57.2% to $1.78bn and imports up 38.6% to $6.16bn. Regional Connectivity Talks: Turkmenistan and Tajikistan held foreign-minister consultations, highlighting growing trade and plans to expand cooperation in energy, transport, communications, agriculture, trade and investment. Tourism Policy: Tajikistan is setting up a Tourism Fund to support tourism service providers via a mix of taxes, fees, fines and partner grants, targeting infrastructure, training and promotion. Cybersecurity Risk: A SilkParasite-linked cyberespionage campaign is reported to target Central Asian government bodies, including Tajikistan, using phishing documents and malware.

Tajikistan Trade: Tajikistan’s foreign trade turnover hit $7.94bn in Jan.–July 2026, up 42.3% year-on-year, with exports rising 57.2% to $1.78bn and imports up 38.6% to $6.16bn, leaving a $4.38bn deficit; precious metals and stones led export growth (up more than 160-fold). Energy & Fuel Security: With Russian fuel supplies faltering, Tajikistan has asked Iran for 2.55m tons of crude and petroleum products (including diesel, gasoline and aviation fuel), as Dushanbe looks for steadier logistics amid tightening sanctions risk. Transport Diplomacy: Tajikistan and China discussed transport infrastructure cooperation in a bid to ease trade and humanitarian exchanges, while Tajikistan’s transport minister also met China’s ambassador to push implementation of leader-level agreements. Cyber Risk: A new Central Asia-wide cyberespionage campaign, “SilkParasite,” targeted government bodies involved in economic decision-making, using tailored phishing lures across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Georgia. Tourism Finance: Tajikistan approved a Tourism Fund to support operators and upgrade infrastructure, funded by taxes on tour packages and visitor travel, plus permit fees and penalties. Regional Connectivity: China’s “golden border-coast loop” road plan would run near borders including Tajikistan, aiming for completion by 2030.

Tajikistan Trade Surge: Tajikistan’s foreign trade turnover hit $7.94bn in Jan–July 2026, up 42.3% y/y, with exports rising 57.2% to $1.78bn and imports up 38.6% to $6.16bn, leaving a $4.38bn deficit; exports of precious metals and stones jumped more than 160-fold. Fuel Security Push: With over 80% of fuel previously coming from Russia, Dushanbe has asked Iran to supply 2.55m tons of crude and petroleum products (including diesel, gasoline and jet fuel) as Russian deliveries falter. China-Tajik Transport Talks: Tajikistan’s transport minister met China’s ambassador to advance agreements aimed at easing trade and humanitarian exchanges, while broader China infrastructure plans keep expanding along border corridors. Tourism Fund Plan: Tajikistan is setting up a Tourism Development Fund financed by a 5% tax on outbound tour packages, a tourist tax on inbound packages, permits and penalties, to upgrade infrastructure, train staff and promote the sector. Cyber Risk for Public Sector: Researchers flagged the “SilkParasite” cyberespionage campaign targeting government bodies across Central Asia, including Tajikistan, using tailored phishing documents and remote access tools. Business Linkages: Around 120 Tajik companies met a Russian business mission in Dushanbe to explore imports of Russian goods across agriculture, food processing, pharma, construction materials and FMCG.

Tajikistan Trade Surge: Tajikistan’s foreign trade turnover hit $7.94bn in Jan.–July 2026, up 42.3% y/y, with exports rising 57.2% to $1.78bn and imports up 38.6% to $6.16bn, leaving a $4.38bn deficit; precious metals exports jumped more than 160-fold. Fuel Security Push: With Russian supplies faltering, Dushanbe asked Iran for 2.55m tons of crude and fuels (including diesel, gasoline and jet fuel), seeking alternatives as U.S. pressure on Iran raises sanctions risk. Iran-Tajik Talks: Tajikistan and Iran also discussed expanding economic cooperation, while Tehran floated a Persian-speaking countries union idea that could deepen regional trade ties. Tourism Funding Plan: Tajikistan approved a Tourism Fund financed by taxes on tour packages, visitor fees and permits, aimed at upgrading infrastructure, training staff and promoting the sector abroad. Business Links with Russia: About 120 Tajik companies met a Russian business mission in Dushanbe to expand imports of Russian goods across agriculture, food, pharma, construction and FMCG. Cyber Risk for the Public Sector: Bitdefender reported the SilkParasite cyberespionage campaign targeting government bodies across Central Asia, including Tajikistan, using tailored phishing lures and cloud-based command channels. Regional Diplomacy: Turkmenistan and Tajikistan held foreign-minister consultations and signed a 2027–2028 cooperation program, with trade, energy, transport and humanitarian ties on the agenda.

Foreign Trade: Tajikistan’s foreign trade turnover hit $7.94bn in Jan.–July 2026, up 42.3% y/y, with exports rising 57.2% to $1.78bn and imports up 38.6% to $6.16bn, leaving a $4.38bn deficit; China stayed the top partner. Tourism Finance: Dushanbe approved a Tourism Fund to support service providers and grow the sector, funded by a 5% tax on outbound tour packages for Tajik citizens, a tourist tax on inbound travelers, service fees, and penalties for tax evasion. Fuel Security: Tajikistan asked Iran to supply 2.55m tons of crude and petroleum products as Russian fuel deliveries falter, including 2m tons crude, 300k diesel, 150k gasoline and 100k aviation fuel. Cyber Risk: Bitdefender reported the “SilkParasite” cyberespionage campaign targeting Central Asian government bodies, including Tajikistan, using tailored lure documents and malware linked to China-nexus activity. Bilateral Business: About 120 Tajik companies met a Russian business mission in Dushanbe to expand imports of Russian goods across agriculture, food processing, pharma and FMCG. Regional Diplomacy: Turkmenistan and Tajikistan held foreign-minister consultations and signed a 2027–2028 cooperation program, with trade, energy and transport on the agenda.

Foreign Trade: Tajikistan’s foreign trade turnover hit $7.94bn in Jan.–July 2026, up 42.3% y/y, with exports rising 57.2% to $1.78bn and imports up 38.6% to $6.16bn, leaving a $4.38bn deficit; exports of precious metals and stones surged more than 160-fold to $519m. Tourism Finance: Dushanbe is setting up a Tourism Fund to back tourism service providers, funded by a 5% tax on outbound tour packages for Tajik citizens, a tourist tax on inbound visitors, permit fees, and fines; money will go to infrastructure, training, and promotion. Fuel Security: With Russian supplies increasingly unreliable, Tajikistan has asked Iran for 2.55m tons of crude and petroleum products (including diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel), as U.S. threats of tougher Iran-related economic pressure loom. Bilateral Trade Talks: Turkmenistan and Tajikistan held foreign-minister consultations in Ashgabat, focusing on expanding trade and economic cooperation in energy, transport, communications, agriculture, and investment. Cyber Risk: A Central Asia-wide cyberespionage campaign dubbed “SilkParasite” targeted government bodies, including Tajikistan, using tailored lures and remote-access malware.